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有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。
Some scholars have suggested that the undervalued renminbi is a major factor in China’s trade surplus and global trade imbalance. Therefore, the appreciation of the renminbi will help improve the trade situation between China and the West. Obviously, the internal logic of this view is that a revaluation of the renminbi will raise the prices of China’s exports and reduce the prices of foreign imports of goods and services. That is, there is a large pass-though effect on the appreciation of the renminbi. Through the study of RMB exchange rate effect, we find that RMB appreciation can not improve the trade between the United States and China, but it can improve the trade between Japan and China. The difference lies in the difference of trade pricing.