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本文提出了适合湖泊水网区的,有若干个输入通过湖泊调蓄联结下游湖泊或水道出流的复杂系统的实时洪水预报和分洪调度模型。实时洪水预报由线性扰动模型估算系统状态,再用自回归模型进行实时校正。因湖区各断面的水位流量关系呈各式绳套,需通过水力学方法改正为单值关系,以实现水位流量过程的转化。分洪调度中,分蓄洪水量的计算用多个约束条件的调洪演算实现。本文对上述三个方面从理论到实践进行了较详细的阐述,并在洞庭湖区出口城陵矶站的实时洪水预报和分洪调度中应用,获得成功。
This paper presents a real-time flood forecasting and flood diversion scheduling model suitable for the water network area of the lake and having a number of complex inputs and outputs through lakes and reservoirs that connect downstream lakes or waterways. Real-time flood forecast system estimates the state of the linear perturbation model, and then real-time correction using autoregressive model. Due to the relationship between the water level and flow in all sections of the lake area, all types of rope sets are required to be corrected to a single value relationship by means of hydraulic method so as to realize the conversion of water level and flow rate process. In flood diversion scheduling, the calculation of flood diversion is accomplished by flood regulation with multiple constraints. This paper elaborates the above three aspects from theory to practice in detail and applies it in the real-time flood forecast and flood diversion dispatching of Chenglingji Station at the exit of Dongting Lake.