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由广东油气商会主办的“2004年中国石油市场研讨会”吸引了国内外业界人士的眼球。会上专家的报告显示,世界原油市场目前仍是以供应为主导、以需求为驱动。2003年全球的原油需求量为7866万桶/日,预计2004年将增加230万桶/日,中国以85万桶/日的增量继续成为世界原油需求增长最强劲的国家。国际油价被拉高到每桶40美元以上,但世界原油平均的勘探开发与生产成本之和却只有12.3美元/桶。高油价是多种因素共同作用的结果。作为世界第二大能源消费国,中国的原油与成品油进口量增势迅猛,成品油中又以燃料油的进口最为突出。2003年燃料油进口量首次超过炼油厂供应量,并突破2000万吨,进口依存度升至53%。为加快与国际接轨,改变中国在亚太燃料油定价体系中的弱势地位,减少价格风险对宏观经济影响,并为石油市场开放和体制建设提供规范和市场环境,中国近期将先后推出燃料油期货与石油中远期交易。
The 2004 China Oil Market Symposium, sponsored by the Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce, has attracted the attention of people in the industry at home and abroad. Experts present at the meeting showed that the world crude oil market is still supply-led and demand-driven. In 2003, the global demand for crude oil was 78.66 million barrels / day. It is estimated that it will increase by 2.3 million barrels / day in 2004 while China will continue to be the country with the strongest growth in world crude oil demand by 85 million barrels / day. International oil prices have been pulled above 40 U.S. dollars per barrel, but the average cost of oil exploration and production in the world is only 12.3 U.S. dollars per barrel. High oil prices are the result of multiple factors. As the second largest consumer of energy in the world, the import volume of crude oil and refined oil in China is increasing rapidly, and the import of fuel oil in refined oil products is the most prominent one. For the first time in 2003, the import volume of fuel oil surpassed that of refineries and exceeded 20 million tons, bringing the import dependence to 53%. In order to speed up international standards, change China’s disadvantaged position in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil pricing system, reduce the impact of price risk on the macroeconomy and provide a normative and market environment for the oil market liberalization and institutional development, China will successively launch the fuel oil futures and Mid and long term oil trading.