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1985年5月,在昆明举行了西南地震工作二十周年纪念大会。作者在会上宣读了震中迁移与前兆穴位的论文。本文就是在这篇论文的基础上写出的。我们发现在过去震中迁移的始发点上的前兆手段一旦观测到短临异常,则台址附近有震或历史上震中迁移所至之处有震(误差约60公里)。另外过去地震幕的开幕点上的前兆也具有类似的情况。我们称震中迁移始发点为震迁穴,称开幕点为开幕穴。为了理解上述现象,我们可把震中迁移广义化为构造事件的迁移。这种构造事件速度快者为地震,次快者不发射地震波,但可引起其他前兆。据此可把甲地向乙地的构造事件迁移分为以下三种情况。1.快速事件(地震)→快速事件(地震) 2.次快速事件(前兆)→快速事件(地震) 3.地震(快速事件)→次快速事件(后效) 如果一个迁移带上已表现过第一种情况,则第二和第三种情况也可能表现。其中第二种情况具有前兆定向预报的意义,是本文讨论的重。对于震迁穴上的前兆为什么属于短临前兆的问题,我们可用立交模式和调制模式相结合来解释。从调制模式的角度来看,地震迁移始发点和开幕点一旦呈现后,若历时又不很长,则它们是容易被调制的地点(简称易调点)。易调点被外因调制后可触发下岩石圈中的蠕滑断层传播,从而引起其他地段的大震发生。我们认为前兆穴位可分两种:一种为静态穴位,如由构造条件和台址条件决定的穴位;另一种是动态穴位,如由地震活动图象决定的穴位。本文还提出了构交穴、库渗穴、震后穴、垂烈穴和址良穴等。这些都需要进一步研究。以上讨论的是用前兆资料结合历史上震中迁移资料预报地震的方法。这只是预报方案之一。另一方案是前兆观测点附近有震,其发震日期仍按调制公式计算,其震级可按前兆范围半径R与震级M的关系式计算。从组合模式出发,作者和秦保燕得出以下公式: 若取近似式,则为: logR=0.5M-1.4 式中R以公里为单位。如用单台前兆资料,则不同的R相应不同的震级。
In May 1985, the commemorative meeting of the 20th anniversary of the southwestern earthquake was held in Kunming. At the conference, the author read the essay on the epicenter of the epicenter of the epicenter and the precursor of acupuncture. This article is based on the thesis written. We found that the short-term anomalies observed at precursors at the onset of the past epicenter of the epicenter of the epicenter of the epicenter had an earthquake (error of about 60 km) where a quake or a historical epicenter had migrated. In addition, the precursors at the opening point of the past earthquake curtain also have a similar situation. We call the epicenter of the epicenter Migration point, called the opening point for the opening point. In order to understand the above phenomenon, we can generalize the epicenter migration as the migration of constructing events. This type of tectonic event is faster for earthquakes, and less likely for the second wave, but can cause other precursors. According to this, the transfer of tectonic events from station A to station B can be divided into the following three cases. 1. Rapid events (earthquakes) → fast events (earthquakes) 2. second fast events (precursors) → fast events (earthquakes) 3. earthquakes (fast events) → second fast events (after effects) If a transition has already been performed The first case, then the second and third situations may also be manifested. The second case has the significance of precursor predictions, which is the weight of this article. The question of why the precursors to the earthquake site were short-term precursors can be explained by the combination of interchange and modulation. From the point of view of the modulation mode, once the origin and opening points of the earthquake migration have been presented, they are easy to be modulated if they do not last long. The easy-to-adjust point can be triggered by extrinsic modulation to spread the creeping faults in the lithosphere, causing great earthquakes in other areas. We think there are two kinds of precursor acupuncture points: one is static acupoints, such as acupoints determined by tectonic conditions and site conditions; the other is acupoints, such as acupoints determined by seismicity images. In this paper, we also proposed the construction of Jiajiao, reservoir Xuejian, Zhenhou, Chih-Lie and Liangliang. These need further study. The above discussion is about a method of predicting earthquakes using precursory data in combination with historical epicenter migration data. This is only one of the forecast programs. Another scenario is that there is a quake near the precursor observation point, and the occurrence date of the quake is still calculated according to the modulation formula. The magnitude of the quake can be calculated according to the relation between the radius R of the precursor and the magnitude M. Starting from the combination mode, the author and Qin Baoyan come to the following formula: If we take the approximate formula, then: logR = 0.5M-1.4 Where R is in kilometers. If a single precursor data, then different R corresponding to different magnitudes.