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目的研究寒潮对广州市居民死亡率的影响。方法将2004年1月19日—2月1日共14 d作为寒潮时期,分别在其前后3周选择7 d作为对照时期(即2003年12月29日—2004年1月4日和2004年2月16—22日)。通过计算寒潮时期超额死亡人数及寒潮时期与对照时期的率比来评估寒潮对人群死亡率的影响。结果与对照时期相比,寒潮所致的超额死亡人数为103人,导致人群总死亡率增加8%(RR=1.08,95%CI:1.01~1.17)。寒潮对呼吸系统疾病死亡率的影响有统计学意义(RR=1.27,95%CI:1.07~1.51),而对心血管疾病死亡率的影响无统计学意义(RR=1.10,95%CI:0.97~1.24)。结论寒潮对居民死亡率有影响,尤其是对呼吸系统疾病。
Objective To study the impact of cold wave on the mortality of Guangzhou residents. Methods A total of 14 days from January 19 to February 1, 2004 were selected as the cold-blooded period. Seven days before and after 3 weeks of treatment were selected as the control period (ie December 29, 2003 - January 4, 2004 and 2004 February 16-22). The impact of cold wave on population mortality was evaluated by calculating the number of excess deaths in cold spells and the ratio of cold spells to the control period. Results Compared with the control period, the excess number of cold-induced deaths was 103, resulting in a 8% increase in overall population mortality (RR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.17). The effect of cold wave on respiratory disease mortality was statistically significant (RR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.07-1.51), but had no significant effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.97 ~ 1.24). Conclusion Cold spells have an impact on resident mortality, especially for respiratory diseases.