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2016年,我国居民消费价格同比涨幅呈“前高中低后升”的运行特征,消费领域价格涨幅总体温和,工业生产者价格同比由负转正,生产领域通缩压力逐步缓和,预计2016年CPI上涨2.0%,PPI下降1.7%。展望2017年,宽松的金融货币环境、人力成本趋势性上升、翘尾因素升高等因素将支撑价格上涨;总需求稳中趋缓、农业领域粮食产量和库存双高、以房地产为代表的资产价格稳中有降、通胀预期偏弱等因素将抑制物价涨幅。综合考虑,预计2017年CPI上涨1.8%,PPI上涨1.0%。建议实施灵活稳健的货币政策、做好农业生产保障主要农产品供给稳定、多措并举扩大去产能范围、稳步推进能源资源和服务等领域价格改革、因城施策稳定房地产市场价格和预期。
In 2016, the year-on-year increase of consumer prices in China was characterized by the operation features of “high school, low middle school and low school graduates”, the price increase in the consumer field was generally moderate, the price of industrial producers turned positive from negative to positive year on year, and the deflationary pressure in the production field gradually eased. Up 2.0% and PPI down 1.7%. Looking forward to 2017, easing financial and monetary conditions, rising trend of labor costs and rising of hikes will support price increases. The overall demand will slow down steadily. The output and stock of agricultural products will double to the asset prices represented by real estate Steady decline, weak inflation expectations and other factors will curb price increases. Taken together, CPI is expected to rise 1.8% in 2017 and PPI up 1.0%. It is recommended that a flexible and prudent monetary policy should be implemented and that agricultural production should be protected. The supply of major agricultural products should be stable. Measures should be taken to expand the scope of production capacity and steadily promote price reform in areas such as energy, resources and services.