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在土地资源承载能力研究中,粮食产量的预测是关键之一。在时间尺度为10—15年的预测方法中,Logistic函数法应用颇广。产量年际波动对预测值的影响考虑尚嫌不足,可以说是此法的一个不足之处。反过来这又会影响土地资源承载能力的深入研究。 本文利用1949—1987年浙江省粮食单产资料,运用离差百分率法,分析了全年粮食单产的年际波动特征,并在波谱周期分析的基础上,结合粮播面积的预测,对单年(1990、1995、2000年)和时段的全省粮食产量作了预测。最后结合人口预测,对浙江省土地资源的人口承载能力作了初浅的探讨。
In the research on the carrying capacity of land resources, the forecast of grain yield is one of the key issues. Logistic function method is widely used in forecasting method with time scale of 10-15 years. The effect of annual output fluctuation on the forecasting value is not enough, so it can be said that this method is a deficit. In turn, this will affect the carrying capacity of land resources in-depth study. Based on the analysis of the spectral period and the prediction of the grain sown area, the paper analyzes the annual grain yield per unit of annual grain yield from the data of grain yield per unit of Zhejiang Province from 1949 to 1987, 1990, 1995, 2000) and forecast the province’s grain production. Finally, combined with the population forecast, this paper discusses the population carrying capacity of land resources in Zhejiang Province.