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前言 1986年8月7日凌晨,在四川省甘孜州理塘县境的日乃附近,发生了5.6级地震。这次地震是继1968年3月3日理塘5.7级地震后发生的又一次中强震。根据对这几年所取得资料的分析,1985年9月在全省地震趋势会商会上曾指出:1985年沿青藏高原第二弧形构造带M_S≥5级地震发生较频繁,在四川周围有9次;1982年7月以来,四川缺5级以上地震已近4年,严重缺震的现象表明,四川西部有发生强震的危险;据马氏链统计转移及综合概率法计算亦认为1986年四川有6级或6级以上地震发生的可能。这次理塘5.6级地震,正是发生在我省中期预报所
Preface In the early hours of August 7, 1986, a 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck near Dayunan, Litang County, Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province. This earthquake is another moderate-strong earthquake that occurred after the March 2005 5.3 Rift Tong earthquake. According to the analysis of the data obtained in recent years, it was pointed out in the Seismological Trends Chamber of Commerce in September 1985 that the M_S≥5 earthquake occurred along the second arc structure along the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1985 and occurred around Sichuan 9 times. Since July 1982, Sichuan Province has missed an earthquake of magnitude 5 or above for nearly 4 years. The serious earthquake-induced phenomenon indicates that there is a danger of strong earthquakes in western Sichuan. According to the statistical transfer of Markov chains and the comprehensive probability method, 1986 There is a possibility that an earthquake of magnitude 6 or above may occur in Sichuan in the year of The Litang 5.6 earthquake, it is occurred in the mid-term forecast of our province