通过径流式水电站年发电量变化及其预测问题的分析 ,建立了径流式水电站年发电量预测的灰色数学模型 ,并就预测中样本序列的拓扑选择、预测的目标等问题提出了相应的策略。最后结合一个实例说明了本方法的应用。结果表明 ,本文的方法及分析思路 ,对径流式水电站年发电量的预测具有较好的应用和参考价值 Based on the analysis of annual power generation change and its prediction problems, this paper established a gray mathematical model for predicting annual power generation of radial-flow hydropower stations and put forward corresponding strategies for the topological selection and target prediction of the sample sequence. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of this method. The results show that the method and analysis of this paper have a good application and reference value for the prediction of annual power generation of radial-flow hydropower stations