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针对金属矿产资源开发中的不确定性及决策者过度自信的心理偏差,在金属矿产资源开发项目实物期权评价方法的基础上纳入过度自信心理偏差对其价值波动率的影响,从而构建了基于过度自信的金属矿产资源实物期权评价模型,并通过数值模拟及敏感性分析,检验了不同程度过度自信对模型评价结果的影响。结果表明:基于过度自信的金属矿产资源实物期权评价模型改变了传统实物期权评价模型的临界投资价值和期权价值,使得最优投资策略发生较大改变。因此,在矿产资源开发项目实物期权评价模型中纳入过度自信心理偏差的影响是项目评价理论拓展的重要方向。
In view of the uncertainty in the development of metal mineral resources and the psychological bias of overconfidence of decision makers, this paper includes the influence of excessively confident psychological deviation on the value volatility based on the real option evaluation method of metal mineral resources development project, Self-confidence real option evaluation model of metal mineral resources, and through the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis, tests the impact of different degrees of overconfidence on the model evaluation results. The results show that the overconfidence-based real option evaluation model of metal mineral resources changes the critical investment value and option value of the traditional real option evaluation model, resulting in a great change in the optimal investment strategy. Therefore, it is an important direction for project evaluation theory to extend the impact of overconfidence psychic deviation into the real option evaluation model of mineral resources development projects.