论文部分内容阅读
自然灾害风险分散体系在综合灾害风险防范中发挥着重要作用,分析和对比不同风险分散工具的效率与效益,对实现工具组合与体系优化具有重要的意义。本文选取了保险、彩票和捐赠三种可以实现公众灾害风险分摊的金融工具,分别基于社会最优风险分散理论和中国历史上发挥的作用对三者的效率与效益进行初步对比。研究表明,理想条件下保险与捐赠均可实现最优的风险分散;现实市场中,三者均无法实现帕累托最优。当前中国的自然灾害风险分散体系仍然不发达,三者在中国历史重大自然灾害风险分散与损失补偿中的贡献水平从高到低依次为捐赠、彩票和保险。在中国,由于灾害风险分散所依赖的金融市场发展程度仍然较低,对三者的深入对比分析需要依托理论市场和消费者选择模型进一步深化研究。
The natural disaster risk dispersion system plays an important role in the integrated disaster risk prevention. It is of great significance to analyze and compare the efficiency and benefit of different risk diversification tools to realize the tool combination and system optimization. In this paper, we choose three kinds of financial instruments, such as insurance, lottery and donation, which can realize the risk-sharing of public disasters. The paper compares the efficiency and benefit of the three separately based on the theory of decentralized social risk and the role China has played in history. The research shows that both insurance and donation under ideal conditions can achieve optimal risk diversification; in the real market, none of the three can achieve Pareto optimality. At present, China’s natural disaster risk dispersion system is still underdeveloped. The contribution rates of the three in the distribution and loss compensation of major historical natural disaster in China are donated, lottery and insurance in descending order. In China, due to the low degree of financial market development due to the disagreement of disaster risk, the deep comparative analysis of the three needs to further deepen the research based on the theoretical market and consumer choice model.