Since the beginning of the 20th century, many researches on the sealing characteristic of mechanical seals were carried out broadly and in depth by various methods and some leakage models were built. But due to the lack of the way to characterize the main factors of influence on the leakage, most of the early researches were based on the assumptions that the seal faces topography and the frictional conditions were invariant. In the early built models, the effect of the surface topography change of the seal face on the leakage rate was neglected. Based on the fractal theory, the contact of end faces of the rotary and stationary rings was simplified to be the contact of a rough surface and an ideal rigid smooth surface, and the contact interface’s cavity size-distribution function as well as the fractal characteristic of the cavity profile curve was discussed. By analyzing the influence of abrasion on the seal face topography and the leakage channel, the time-correlation leakage prediction model of mechanical seals based on the fractal theory was established and the method for predicting the leakage rate of mechanical seals with parallel plane was proposed. The values of the leakage rate predicted theoretically are similar to the measured values of the leakage rate in the model test and in situ test. The experimental results indicate that the leakage rate of mechanical seals is a transient value. The surface topography of the end faces of the seal rings and its change during the frictional wear of mechanical seals can be accurately characterized by the fractal parameters. Under the work conditions of changeless frictional mechanism, the fractal parameters measured or calculated based on the accelerated testing equation can be used to predict the leakage rate of mechanical seal in service. The proposed research provides the basis for determining the leakage state and predicting working life of mechanical seal. Since the beginning of the 20th century, many researches on the sealing characteristic of mechanical seals were carried out broadly and in depth by various methods and some leakage models were built. But due to the lack of the way to characterize the main factors of influence on the leakage, most of the early researches were based on the assumptions that the seal faces topography and the frictional conditions were invariant. In the early built models, the effect of the surface topography change of the seal face on the leakage rate was neglected. Based on the fractal theory, the contact of end faces of the rotary and stationary rings was simplified to be the contact of a rough surface and an ideal rigid smooth surface, and the contact interface’s cavity size-distribution function as well as the fractal characteristic of the By analyzing the influence of abrasion on the seal face topography and the leakage channel, the time-correlation leakage predicate tion model of mechanical seals based on the fractal theory was established and the method for predicting the leakage rate of mechanical seals with parallel plane was proposed. The values ​​of the leakage rate are theoretically similar to the measured values ​​of the leakage rate in the model The experimental results indicate that the leakage rate of mechanical seals is a transient value. The surface topography of the end faces of the seal rings and its change during the frictional wear of mechanical seals can be accurately characterized by the fractal under the work conditions of changeless frictional mechanism, the fractal parameters measured or calculated based on the accelerated testing equation can be used to predict the leakage rate of mechanical seal in service. The proposed research provides the basis for determining the leakage state and predicting working life of mechanical seal.