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作为中国涉及面最广、群众参与程度最高的一项生态工程,退耕还林对区域土地利用变化产生了重大影响。目前对土地利用变化过程和土地利用主体行为的分析研究不足,不能有效揭示宏观农业土地利用变化的微观机理,难以合理解释农户土地利用行为的变化。本文以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为例进行研究,利用经历权重法定量分析了退耕还林政策结束前后不同农户群体土地利用策略的变化;利用构建的农户群体土地利用决策模型,模拟不同政策情景下农户群体土地利用行为的变化及其对区域土地利用变化的影响。结果表明,该模型可以显示还耕和撂荒两种土地利用行为的变化及其空间配置,能揭示造成这种区域差异的微观机理,为分析农户群体土地利用行为的变化、探讨农业政策与农户行为之间的相互作用,提供了可供借鉴的途径。
As an ecological project involving the most extensive and most heavily involved people in China, returning farmland to forestry has had a significant impact on the change of land use in the region. At present, there is not enough research on the process of land use change and the main body of land use, which can not reveal the microscopic mechanism of macro-agricultural land use change effectively, and it is difficult to reasonably explain the change of land use behavior of farmers. In this paper, we take Gaoqu Township, Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province as an example to study the use of experience weight method to quantitatively analyze the changes of land use strategies of different peasant households before and after the policy of returning farmland to forestry. Using the constructed land use decision model of peasant households to simulate different policies Changes of Farm Households’ Land Use and Their Impact on Regional Land Use Change under Scenario. The results show that the model can show the change and spatial distribution of two land use behaviors such as repro- duction and fallow. It can reveal the microscopic mechanism of the difference in land use. In order to analyze the change of land use behavior of farmers and discuss the relationship between agricultural policy and farmer’s behavior The interaction between them provides a way for reference.