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离差均方比相似分析法是模糊相似方法中的一种。其基本原理是根据预测年份各相似因子的数值(固定样本)与历史上各年度相应值的离差均方比综合评价固定样本与历史样本在多因子水平上的相似程度,估计预报量的等级;该方法与模糊相似优选比方法相比,具有计算量小、对相似因子无排斥性、结果准确等优点。我站1991、1992连续两年使用该方法预测小麦赤霉病流行程度,预测结果与实况完全相符。
The deviation square method is a kind of fuzzy similarity method. The basic principle is to make a comprehensive assessment of the degree of similarity between the fixed sample and the historical sample at the multi-factor level according to the mean square deviation of the values of the similar factors (fixed samples) in the forecast year and the corresponding values in the historical years, and to estimate the grade of the forecast quantity Compared with fuzzy similarity method, this method has some advantages such as less computation, no rejection for similar factors and accurate result. I used this method for two consecutive years in 1991 and 1992 to predict the prevalence of wheat head blight. The prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation.