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目的建立灰色数列模型对甘肃省民乐县未来两年高一学生视力低下率进行预测,为全县防治学生视力低下提供科学依据。方法对民乐县5年来高一学生视力低下率进行统计分析,建立GM(1.1)模型,对模型进行拟合优度检验,然后用模型预测未来两年高一学生视力下降情况。结果 2008—2012年民乐县高一学生视力低下率分别为67.01%、71.86%、76.24%、79.24%、82.25%,视力下降基本呈直线上升趋势,根据该特征,建立了GM(1.1)模型:y(t)=[x(t1)-u/a]e-a(t-1)+u/a=(67.01+1 542.29)e0.043 98(t-1)-1 542.29,经统计学分析:拟合度R2=0.994 4,非常接近于1,完全可用此模型进行预测。结论利用该模型对2008—2012年民乐县高一学生视力低下率的预测,与实际结果非常接近,说明预测结果有较好的参考价值;对2013年和2014年视力低下率进行的预测,结果为86.34%、90.15%,学生视力低下率呈上升趋势,需引起学校、家长和学生的高度重视。
Objective To establish a gray number series model to predict the low vision rate of high school students in Minle County of Gansu Province in the next two years and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of low vision in this county. Methods A statistical analysis was conducted on the prevalence of sight loss in high school students in Minle County in the past five years. The GM (1.1) model was established to test the goodness of fit of the model. The model was then used to predict the decline of vision of the freshmen in the next two years. Results The visual acuity of high school students in Minle County was 67.01%, 71.86%, 76.24%, 79.24% and 82.25% respectively from 2008 to 2012. The visual acuity decreased linearly. According to the characteristics, the GM (1.1) model was established: y (t) = [x (t 1) -u / a] ea (t -1) + u / a = (67.01 + 1 542.29) e 0.043 98 (t -1) -1 542.29, The fitting degree R2 = 0.994 4, which is very close to 1, can be fully predicted by this model. Conclusions The prediction of the rate of poor eyesight of the freshmen in Minle County from 2008 to 2012 is very close to the actual result, which shows that the prediction result has a good reference value. The prediction of the rate of vision loss in 2013 and 2014, the result 86.34%, 90.15%. The prevalence of sight loss in students is on an upward trend, and schools, parents and students should pay close attention to it.