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提出一种适用于舰船设计各阶段的舰船总体可靠性分配的实用方法.把总体可靠性分为使用可用度和任务可靠度:前者可由系统的可靠性、维修性和综合后勤保障参数求得;后者的计算是将任务分成若干阶段,所有的任务阶段均分为三种类型,即航渡类、待机类和任务类,每个阶段根据各自的特点用故障树法结合数值仿真方法建立对应的计算模块及可靠度模型,然后再将各模块的模型综合起来,组成任务可靠度模型.另外,对初值问题和约束条件进行简化,以专家综合评分为依据确定各系统搜索步长,进行可靠性分配搜索,利用故障树分析方法和基于最小割集的数值仿真算法计算各阶段的概率,从而得到总的系统可靠性.该方法作为舰船总体可靠性分配模型的一种尝试,在实际应用中已取得成功.
A practical method for the overall reliability allocation of ships suitable for all phases of ship design is proposed. The overall reliability is divided into the use of availability and mission reliability: the former can be obtained by the system reliability, maintainability and comprehensive logistics support parameters; the latter calculation is divided into several phases of the task, all the task phases are divided into three Type, that is, navigation class, standby class and task class, each stage according to their characteristics using fault tree method combined with numerical simulation method to establish the corresponding calculation module and reliability model, and then the model of each module together to form Mission Reliability Model. In addition, the initial value problems and constraints are simplified, and the search step of each system is determined based on the expert’s comprehensive score, and the reliability distribution search is carried out. The fault tree analysis method and the numerical simulation algorithm based on the minimum cut set are used to calculate the probability of each phase , Resulting in total system reliability. This method, as an attempt to model the overall reliability of ships, has achieved success in practical application.