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本文认为,在“沪港通”实施后,人民币汇率越来越具有资产价格属性,人民币汇率弹性增强可期。2014年11月17日正式启动的沪港通,有利于增强人民币汇率弹性。资产市场对汇率决定具有重要影响经常项目平衡是分析均衡汇率的基石,国际上通常认为,经常项目差额与国内生产总值(GDP)之比在4%以内表示汇率处于均衡水平。但是,仅仅观察经常项目这个慢变量,并不能解释汇率这个快变量的日常波动。
This article argues that after the implementation of “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect”, the exchange rate of RMB has become more and more asset-price, and the flexibility of RMB exchange rate can be enhanced. The official launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect on November 17, 2014 will help strengthen the RMB exchange rate flexibility. Assets Market Has Important Influence on Exchange Rate Determination The balance of current account is the cornerstone of analyzing equilibrium exchange rate. Internationally, it is generally considered that the exchange rate is at an equilibrium level within 4% of current account balance to gross domestic product. However, merely looking at the slow variable of the current account does not explain the daily fluctuations in the fast variable of the exchange rate.