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外贸乘数是指国民收入的变化与带来这种变化的外贸增量之间的比率,它所衡量的是外贸对一国经济的拉动作用。2009年中国对外贸易总量居世界第2位,出口贸易额居世界第1位,外贸乘数效应逐步体现,但总体看来,外贸乘数数值偏小,不同年份之间波动较大,并没有完全发挥对国民经济的积极拉动作用。金融危机以来,世界经济遭受重创,中国对外贸易也受到一定冲击。本文对近30年来的外贸乘数进行测算,在此基础上建立多元回归模型作以实证分析,并针对现实情况提出了相关的政策建议。
The foreign trade multiplier refers to the ratio between the change in national income and the increase in foreign trade that brings about such changes. What it measures is the stimulating effect foreign trade exerts on the economy of a country. In 2009, the total amount of China’s foreign trade ranked the second in the world, the volume of export trade ranked the first in the world, and the effect of foreign trade multiplier gradually reflected. However, in general, the trade multiplier value was too small and fluctuated greatly between different years Did not fully play a positive role in stimulating the national economy. Since the financial crisis, the world economy hit hard and China’s foreign trade has also been hit hard. This article estimates the foreign trade multipliers in the past 30 years, establishes a multiple regression model for empirical analysis based on this, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions according to the actual situation.