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引言有关大选人们已说了很多,因此,我只是总结一下,人们认为布什会轻而易举地赢得大选,结果,布什确实轻而易举地赢得了大选。人们认为国会仍是民主党人占多数,结果也是如此。事先预测的大选结果是用科学的方法进行抽样调查得出的,预测结果惊人地准确。甚至政治计量学这门新兴科学也精确地预期:大选之前6个月的“安逸指数”(实际经济增长率减去通货膨胀率)有利于执政的共和党继续留在白宫。1988年整个一年都是共和党人的好气候。民主党人不是大失败者,尽管他们输掉很多。大失败者是全体选民。
INTRODUCTION Much has been said about the general election, so let me just summarize that people think that Bush will easily win the general election. As a result, Bush has easily won the general election. People think Congress is still the majority Democrats, the result is true. The predictions of the general election results are based on a scientific method of sampling and the forecast results are surprisingly accurate. Even the emerging science of political metrology accurately predicts that the “comfort index” (real rate of economic growth minus inflation) in the six months prior to the election will favor the ruling Republican party in the White House. The year 1988 was a good time for Republicans. Democrats are not big losers, despite losing a lot of them. Big losers are all voters.