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目的分析中国2004-2013年结核病发病的季节性特征,为制定结核病防治策略和措施提供科学依据。方法采用圆形分布的统计原理,对中国2004-2013年结核病发病情况进行季节性分析。结果 2004-2013年结核病发病存在明显的集中趋势(Z=59 072.71,P<0.05)。结核病发病的高峰日为5月26日,发病高峰日95%的可信区间为5月25日到5月26日,流行高峰期为每年的1月10日至10月8日。结论中国结核病发病有明显的季节性,有必要在结核病发病高峰期加强监测和管理,从而更加有效降低结核病的发病率。
Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2013 and provide scientific evidence for the development of tuberculosis prevention and control strategies and measures. Methods According to the statistical principle of circular distribution, the seasonal distribution of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2013 was analyzed. Results The incidence of tuberculosis in 2004-2013 showed a significant trend of concentration (Z = 59 072.71, P <0.05). The peak incidence of tuberculosis was May 26, and the 95% confidence interval for the onset of the disease was May 25 to May 26, with the peak of the epidemic being January 10 to October 8 each year. Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in China is obviously seasonal. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and management in the peak period of tuberculosis so as to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis more effectively.