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本文采用Hummels和Klenow(2005)的分解方法分析发现:2002~2010年中国出口主要沿着集约边际增长,扩展边际贡献非常小,即使在金融危机前后,这一增长模式也没有发生实质性的变化,且集约边际增长的主要来源是数量边际,转变增长模式成为当务之急。利用22个主要贸易伙伴的双边面板数据进一步研究发现:目的地国家市场规模、多边阻力和外商直接投资是影响出口集约边际增长的主要因素,而固定贸易成本是影响扩展边际增长的主要因素。这些结论为当前制定稳定出口增长政策提供了一些重要的经验支持。
This paper uses the decomposition method of Hummels and Klenow (2005) to find that: From 2002 to 2010, China’s exports mainly follow the intensive marginal growth and the expansion marginal contribution is very small. Even before the financial crisis, the growth pattern has not changed substantively , And the main source of intensive marginal growth is the number of marginal, change the mode of growth has become a top priority. A further study using bilateral panel data from 22 major trading partners found that market size, multilateral resistance and foreign direct investment in the destination countries are the major factors that affect the marginal growth of export-intensive exports, while fixed-trade costs are the major factors affecting the expansion of marginal growth. These conclusions provide some important empirical support for the current formulation of a stable export growth policy.