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中国宏观经济将在2006年至2007年进入一轮新景气,但这一轮景气是一种高位平稳运行的结构性景气。其高点不一定能够超过2004年。2005年末期是为此战略布局的阶段。如果2005年的企业利润增长率继续下滑的话,应该在年内能够见到利润增长率的一个谷位。我们的判断是基于宏观基础的,短期内,经济增长模式难以实现根本性转向,而工业化和城市化的深化也不大可能因宏观调控而停止,所以,与这些相关的行业可谨慎看好。
China’s macroeconomic economy will enter a new round of economic growth from 2006 to 2007, but this round of prosperity is a structural economic boom that runs smoothly at a high level. Its high point may not be able to exceed 2004. The end of 2005 is the stage for this strategic layout. If corporate profit growth in 2005 continues to decline, it should be able to see a valley of profit growth during the year. Our judgment is based on the macroeconomic basis. In the short term, it is difficult to achieve fundamental changes in the pattern of economic growth and it is unlikely that the deepening of industrialization and urbanization will be halted due to macroeconomic regulation. Therefore, relevant industries may be cautiously optimistic.