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征收碳税是发展低碳经济的有效手段。文章构建了经济、能源与二氧化碳排放9部门CGE模型,利用江苏省投入产出表编制了宏观和微观社会核算矩阵并开发了GAMS程序,模拟分析了碳税政策、不同碳税返还方式等情景对江苏宏观经济与碳排放的影响。结果表明:征收碳税将导致江苏实际GDP、社会福利下降,而名义GDP、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入上升;征收碳税将使得煤炭、石油和天然气等化石能源的消费量减少,而电力生产供应和消费增加;征收碳税明显降低了二氧化碳排放,排放强度随着碳税数额增加而下降;碳税抑制了高耗能行业发展,第三产业比重提高,产业结构优化;碳税返还给居民可以改善征收碳税的负面影响,弥补开征碳税造成的社会福利损失。
Carbon tax is an effective means of developing a low-carbon economy. This paper builds a CGE model of nine sectors of economy, energy and carbon dioxide emissions. Using the input-output table of Jiangsu province, we compiled macro and micro social accounting matrix and developed GAMS program to simulate and analyze scenarios such as carbon tax policy and different carbon tax return methods Impact of Jiangsu macroeconomy and carbon emissions. The results show that the carbon tax will lead to the decline of Jiangsu’s real GDP and social welfare while the nominal GDP, resident income, corporate income and government revenue will increase. The carbon tax will reduce the consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum and natural gas while the electricity Production and supply and consumption increased; carbon taxation significantly reduced carbon dioxide emissions, emission intensity with the amount of carbon tax decreased; carbon tax has inhibited the development of high energy-consuming industries, the tertiary industry to improve the proportion of industrial structure optimization; carbon tax return to Residents can improve the negative impact of carbon taxation and make up for the loss of social welfare caused by carbon taxation.