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以乌梁素海苗八流域为研究区,基于1986—2008年的土地利用数据,利用时间加权数学平均法构建土地利用空间转移概率矩阵,应用CA-Markov模型探索流域土地利用空间格局变化规律。结果表明,CA-Markov模型在苗八流域的最佳模拟尺度为5 m,模拟精度较高。时间加权数学平均方法运用于土地利用变化转移矩阵的构建能够帮助CA-Markov模型准确模拟流域的土地利用空间格局变化。在此基础上,还对本流域未来40年的土地利用空间格局进行了模拟预测。结果显示,苗八流域未来40年内土地利用空间格局变化趋势与研究期间相同。
Based on the land use data from 1986 to 2008, the space transfer probability matrix of land use was constructed by using the time-weighted mathematical averaging method. The CA-Markov model was used to explore the change rule of land use spatial pattern in the watershed. The results show that the best simulation scale of CA-Markov model in Miao-Ba Watershed is 5 m, and the simulation accuracy is high. The time-weighted mathematical averaging method applied to the construction of land use change transfer matrix can help CA-Markov model to accurately simulate the change of land use spatial pattern in the basin. On this basis, the land use spatial pattern in the next 40 years in this basin is also simulated. The results showed that the spatial pattern of land use change in the Miaobu catchment during the next 40 years was the same as that during the study period.