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通过对近50a塔里木河源流区径流、温度、降水量的年代际分析,探讨了过去半个世纪塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对河川径流的影响。研究结果显示,在过去50a里,塔里木河三源流径流量总体呈现增加的趋势,尤其体现在20世纪90年代以后,丰水年出现次数较多;对径流和降水量与温度作相关分析可知,随着温度的逐年代升高,其对径流量的影响越来越显著。蒸发量随着温度的升高也在逐渐增大,但是降水量的增长速率远大于蒸发量的增长速率,所以即使蒸发量的增加也不足以使径流量减少。
Based on the interdecadal analysis of runoff, temperature and precipitation in the source region of the Tarim River in the recent 50 years, the climate change in the source region of the Tarim River and its impact on runoff during the past half century were discussed. The results show that in the past 50 years, the runoff of the three sources in the Tarim River has been increasing generally, especially since the 1990s when there were more occurrences in the wet years; and the correlation analysis between runoff and precipitation and temperature shows that, As the temperature increases year by year, its impact on runoff is more and more significant. Evaporation increases with increasing temperature, but the rate of increase of precipitation is far greater than the rate of increase of evaporation, so even if the increase of evaporation is not enough to reduce the runoff.