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为快速准确地获得住宅工程造价时间序列变化的内在规律,提高住宅工程造价预测效果,将灰色GM(1,1)预测方法和马尔可夫概率转移方法有效结合起来,建立灰色马尔可夫模型对住宅工程造价进行预测,并应用该模型对成都市住宅工程造价实例进行预测分析,其预测结果与实际值吻合较好,表明所建立的该预测模型是可行的,在住宅工程造价预测中具有推广应用价值。
In order to obtain the inherent regularity of the time series change of residential project cost quickly and accurately and improve the prediction effect of residential project cost, the gray GM (1,1) prediction method and the Markov probability transfer method are effectively combined to establish the gray Markov model pair Residential project cost forecast, and the application of the model of Chengdu residential project cost example prediction analysis, the forecast result is consistent with the actual value is good, indicating that the established model is feasible to predict, in the residential project cost forecast with promotion Value.