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本文根据经济结构转型中部门劳动生产率和产品价格的变化规律,通过理论分析汇率决定的供给面因素,得出汇率决定与结构转型和部门产品相对价格存在二次函数关系。通过对经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家的数据回归,证实经济增长中的结构转型对实际汇率水平存在长期影响,并分析预测在此影响下实际汇率水平的变化趋势。最后,提出了应对建议。
In this paper, according to the changes of labor productivity and product prices in the transition of economic structure, we theoretically analyze the supply-side factors of the exchange rate decision, and conclude that the exchange rate decision has a quadratic function relationship with the structural transformation and the relative prices of the departmental products. Through the regression of the data of OECD countries, it is confirmed that the structural transformation in economic growth has a long-term impact on the real exchange rate level and the change trend of the real exchange rate under the influence of this forecast is analyzed. Finally, we put forward some suggestions.