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不确定性的测量是研究居民消费行为中的重点和难点,已有的测量方法常由于其对不确定性内涵界定不清、变量单一和适用性差等问题而存在较大的局限性。本文充分分析了已有方法的可取之处和不足,从居民对不确定性的心理感知出发,创造性地用心理偏差和心理偏差率来量化不确定性。通过对我国城镇和农村居民的不确定性感知的科学计量发现:①农村居民的不确定性感知整体上大于城镇居民的不确定性感知;②不确定性感知的波动幅度在1993年之后呈现出下降趋势;③心理偏差和心理偏差率对居民消费的影响虽然同为负向,但对城镇居民和农村居民的消费影响略有差异。
The measurement of uncertainty is the key and difficult point in studying consumer behavior. The existing measurement methods are often limited by their unclear definition of uncertainty, single variable and poor applicability. This article fully analyzes the merits and demerits of the existing methods and starts from the residents’ psychological perception of uncertainty to creatively quantify the uncertainty with the psychological deviation and the psychological deviation rate. Through the scientific measurement of the uncertainty of urban and rural residents in our country, we find: ①the rural residents’ perception of uncertainty is larger than the uncertainty of urban residents as a whole; ② The fluctuation of uncertainty perception shows after 1993 The downward trend; ③ the impact of psychological deviation and psychological deviation rate on household consumption is negative, but the impact on the consumption of urban residents and rural residents is slightly different.