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对于DSGE模型中的技术进步过程,很多文献将其设置成“中性”特征置入生产函数,目前还没有文献从发展经济体“技术吸收”的动态视角研究经济增长中的全要素生产率提升问题。通过构建一个两国贸易流动与技术吸收特征的动态模型,本文采用前沿的“贝叶斯估计”方法讨论了中国技术演化的实现路径。基于“贝叶斯估计”方法的实证结果和数值模拟结果显示:“吸收与创新”并举的模式能够在统计意义上更好地解释中国的经济现实;技术吸收带来的效率提升是中国经济增长和全要素生产率提升的重要源泉,开放经济下中国的经济增长是长期可持续的。当技术存量积累水平较高时,其对GDP的提升效应要延续到下半个周期才能够体现出来;当技术吸收少、自主创新多时,全要素生产率在短期内的提升结果低于技术吸收多时的情景;当国外技术创新具有不确定性特征时,国外技术创新对本国的全要素生产率仍具有提升效应,但是抑制了本国技术的增长效应,呈现出一定的技术“替代性”。
For the process of technological progress in the DSGE model, many literatures set it as a “neutral” feature into the production function. At present, there is no literature that studies all aspects of economic growth from the dynamic perspective of developing economies “technology absorption Factor productivity issues raised. By constructing a dynamic model of the trade flow and technology absorption characteristics of the two countries, this paper uses the frontier ”Bayesian estimation“ method to discuss the path of China’s technological evolution. Empirical results and numerical simulations based on Bayesian estimation show that the model of ”absorption and innovation" can explain China’s economic reality in a statistical sense and the efficiency improvement brought by technology absorption Is an important source of economic growth and total factor productivity growth in China. Under the open economy, China’s economic growth is long-term sustainable. When the level of technology stocks is high, the effect of its promotion on GDP can be extended to the second half of the cycle. When the technology absorbs less and innovates for a long time, the total factor productivity is lower than the technology absorption in a short period of time When foreign technological innovation has the characteristics of uncertainty, foreign technological innovation still has an improving effect on its total factor productivity, but it inhibits the growth effect of its own technology and shows a certain degree of technical substitution.