论文部分内容阅读
目的建立非传染性疾病(noncommmunicable diseases,NCDs)危害性风险评估理念、基本理论框架、指标体系及技术和方法,为开展区域人群NCDs风险评估、预测和控制管理提供技术支持和科学依据。方法采用标准判断、资料分析、德尔菲法等方法和定性、半定量及矩阵风险等级分类法,对全人群、全生命周期、疾病全过程及四大危险因素进行分析。遵循疾病发生发展和转归的规律及逻辑关系,确定NCDs风险和等级,并应用北京地区人群资料验证。结果提出区域人群NCDs危害性风险评估基本理论框架,建立危害性风险评估指标体系、权重分数和评分基准以及评价技术和方法。运用此方法对北京地区人群健康危害性风险评估,整体风险结果为80.8分(相当于NCDs危害性概率为80.8%),风险等级为高风险,很可能发生高度危害。结论区域人群NCDs危害性风险评估基本理论框架、指标体系、评分基准和评估技术与方法,为NCDs风险评估、预测和管理提供了技术支持与科学依据。
Objective To establish risk assessment concept, basic theoretical framework, index system, techniques and methods for risk assessment of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and provide technical support and scientific basis for risk assessment, prediction and control of NCDs in regional population. Methods The methods of standard judgment, data analysis, Delphi method and qualitative, semi-quantitative and matrix risk classification were used to analyze the whole population, the whole life cycle, the whole process of disease and the four risk factors. Follow the rules and logical relationship of the occurrence, development and outcome of the disease, determine the risk and grade of NCDs, and verify the population data in Beijing. Results The basic theoretical framework of risk assessment of NCDs in regional population was put forward, and the index system of risk assessment, weighting criteria, grading standards and evaluation techniques and methods were established. Using this method to assess the risk of health hazards in Beijing population, the overall risk result is 80.8 (equivalent to 80.8% of the NCDs hazardous probability), and the risk level is high risk, which is likely to be highly harmful. Conclusions The basic theoretical framework, index system, scoring benchmark and evaluation techniques and methods of NCDs risk assessment in regional population provide technical support and scientific basis for risk assessment, prediction and management of NCDs.