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基于改善生态环境恶化局面的初衷而推出的退耕还林工程已实施近10年,工程的实施对我国的粮食生产是否有影响是很受关注的一个问题。利用全国31个省(市区)1997～2005年的面板数据,从不同的角度分析了退耕还林工程对我国粮食生产的影响。研究结论表明:退耕还林工程对粮食产量带来了一定的负面影响(大约0.0040);对不同区域的影响不尽相同;对东部和粮食主产区的粮食产量负面影响较大。政策建议:根据不同区域的影响,需要采取不同的政策选择,如允许东部地区和一些粮食主产区的退耕地造林复耕,鼓励开展荒山匹配造林;适度扩大西部地区退耕地造林规模。
The Project of Returning Farmland to Forests, which is based on the original intention of improving the deterioration of the ecological environment, has been implemented for nearly 10 years. Whether the implementation of the project has an impact on the grain production in our country is a matter of great concern. The panel data of 31 provinces (urban areas) in China from 1997 to 2005 were used to analyze the impact of the conversion of farmland to forestry projects on grain production in China from different perspectives. The conclusion of the study shows that the project of converting farmland into forestry has a certain negative impact on grain yield (about 0.0040), different impacts on different regions, and negative impact on grain output in the eastern and major grain-producing areas. Policy Suggestions: According to the influence of different regions, different policy options are needed, such as allowing afforestation and reforestation in the retired farmland in the eastern region and some major grain-producing areas, encouraging the afforestation and barren hills to match afforestation, and appropriately expanding the reforestation scale in the western region.