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目的分析出入境特殊物品可产生传染病等危害的各个风险因子,建立出入境特殊物品风险评估的风险指标体系和数学模型,并编写相应的计算机软件。方法采用专家咨询法建立特殊物品风险评估的指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各风险因子权重,使用Expert Choice 2000软件进行数据处理。使用Visual Basic软件和Access数据库系统编写软件。结果研究建立了出入境特殊物品风险指标评估体系,包括3个一级指标、7个二级指标和20个三级指标。采用数学模型对特殊物品风险进行综合评估。出入境特殊物品风险综合评估值≤0.019为极低程度风险;0.019～1.374为较低程度风险;1.374～2.352为较高程度风险;≥2.352为极高程度风险。结论出入境特殊物品分类的复杂性是造成开展风险评估困难的主要原因。开展风险评估是提升出入境特殊物品检疫监管效率的重要途径。当前出入境特殊物品风险评估关键在于风险的识别和量化。
Objective To analyze the various risk factors that may cause outbreaks of contagious diseases, such as the risk of entering and leaving the special articles, establish the risk index system and mathematical model of the risk assessment of the special articles entering and leaving the country, and compile the corresponding computer software. Methods The expert consultation method was used to establish the index system of risk assessment for special items. The AHP was used to determine the weight of each risk factor and the data was processed using Expert Choice 2000 software. Write software using Visual Basic and Access database systems. Results The study established a risk index assessment system for exit special goods, including three first-level indicators, seven second-level indicators and twenty third-level indicators. Use mathematical model to make a comprehensive assessment of the risk of special items. The comprehensive assessment value of the special articles of exit and entry ≤0.019 is extremely low risk; 0.019 ~ 1.374 is the low risk; 1.374 ~ 2.352 is the higher risk; and ≥2.352 is the very high risk. Conclusions The complexity of the classification of special articles for entry and exit is the main reason for the difficulties in conducting risk assessment. Carrying out risk assessment is an important way to enhance the efficiency of quarantine inspection of special items for entry and exit. The current risk assessment of special items for exit and entry is the identification and quantification of risks.