20 0 4年日本经济持续回升。这一回升进程是多种积极因素共同推动的结果 ,其中主要是消费需求开始恢复 ,设备投资显著扩大 ,出口贸易快速增长 ,金融运行渐趋稳定及通货紧缩有所缓解。同时 ,这一回升进程也面临着多种风险的严重威胁 ,其中主要是油价攀升、美元贬值和加息压力。由此决定 ,2 0 0 4年的日本经济既有望实现较为强劲的增长 ,又已显现“先强后弱”的态势 ,且这一态势在2 0 0 5年还将持续下去。 Japan’s economy continued to recover in 2004. This recovery process is the result of a combination of positive factors. Among them, consumer demand has started to recover, equipment investment has expanded significantly, the rapid growth of export trade, the gradual stabilization of financial operations and the deflation have eased. At the same time, the rebound process is also facing a serious threat of multiple risks, mainly rising oil prices, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the pressure to raise interest rates. It is thus determined that the Japanese economy in 2004 will not only achieve more robust growth but also show a trend of “getting stronger first and then weakening,” and this trend will continue in 2005.