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我们通过对气象因子与落叶松落叶病发病关系的研究,和对入选的主要气象因子在各月份中作用的分析,将六七月份降水量、平均相对湿度和四五月份平均气温确定为病情测报因子。其当年值预测式为y=b_0+b_1x_1+b_2x_2……+b_(12)x_(12)(x_1、x_2……x_(12)为前1—12年测报因子观测值;b_0、b_1……b_(12)为相应回归系数);由23年全省历史资料建立的病情指数预测式为y=68.31-1.68x_1-0.5638x_2+0.36x_3(x_1、x_2、x_3分别为气温、湿度、降水预测值);全省发病面积预测式为y=(-0.13325+0.00533x)Sy(式中,x为病情指数预测值;Sy为全省幼龄落叶松人工林面积)。根据各地区发病面积比例系数和各地区轻、中、重发病面积的百分比,可预测各地区发病面积和轻、中、重发病面积。应防治面积为重、中级发病面积与20％轻病级面积之和。
Through the study of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of larch deciduous disease and the analysis of the role of the selected meteorological factors in each month, we determined the precipitation in June and July, the average relative humidity and the average air temperature in April and May as the disease test factor. The prediction formula of the current year is y = b_0 + b_1x_1 + b_2x_2 ...... + b_ (12) x_ (12) (x_1, x_2 ...... x_ (12) is the observed value of the forecasted 1-12 years; b_0, b_1 b_ (12) is the corresponding regression coefficient). The prediction index of illness index established by the historical data of the province for 23 years is y = 68.31-1.68x_1-0.5638x_2 + 0.36x_3 (x_1, x_2, x_3 are respectively temperature, humidity and precipitation forecast Value); the predicted incidence area of the province y = (- 0.13325 +0.00533x) Sy (type, x is the index of disease index; Sy for the province of young Larix plantation area). According to the proportion of disease area in each region, and the percentage of light, moderate and severe cases in each region, the area of disease and the area of mild, moderate and severe disease can be predicted. Should be prevention and treatment area as the most important, mid-level disease area and 20% of the total area of mild disease.