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2015年初,热带太平洋明显出现了厄尔尼诺事件爆发的一些前期物理信号,这些大气和海洋中呈现的前兆信号与上次爆发超级厄尔尼诺事件的1997年同期非常相似。伴随着赤道西风的增强和暖水的东传,赤道中东太平洋次表层(即洋面以下)暖水不断积聚,赤道东太平洋海温增温也更加显著。到10月份以后,赤道中东太平洋海温已经比常年同期偏高2.0 oC—3.0 oC以上,发展成为21世纪最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。相比国际上众多厄尔尼诺模型提前6—9个月未能给出正确预报的现状,在中科院战略先导专项海洋专项的支持下持续发展的厄尔尼诺预报系统(中科院大气所集合预报版本:IAP Leefs_CDA),则提前9个月以上对该超级厄尔尼诺事件的爆发、发展和强度给出了成功的预报,为我国的气候预测和防灾减灾提供了有力的支撑。同时,厄尔尼诺预报系统的另一版本(中科院海洋所确定性预报版本:IOCAS ICM)也首次在美国哥伦比亚大学网站上提供厄尔尼诺实时预报结果。
At the beginning of 2015, some of the pre-physical signals of the El Niño event clearly appeared in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The precursory signals presented in these atmospheres and oceans are very similar to the same period in 1997 as the last El Niño event. With the enhancement of the equatorial westerly and the eastward spread of warm water, warm water in the equatorial central and eastern equatorial Pacific (ie, below the ocean surface) accumulates and the warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific is more pronounced. After October, the SST in the equatorial central and eastern equatorial Pacific has risen above 2.0 oC-3.0 oC from the same period of previous years, becoming the strongest El Niño event in the 21st century. Compared to many international El Niño models, which fail to provide correct forecasts 6-9 months ahead of schedule, the El Niño forecasting system (IAP Leefs_CDA), which is undergoing continuous development with the support of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Pilot Special Marine Special Project, The successful prediction of the onset, development and intensity of the Super El Niño event nine months in advance provides a powerful support for China’s climate prediction and disaster prevention and mitigation. In the meantime, another version of the El Niño forecasting system (ICAO Marine Confirmed Forecast Version: IOCAS ICM) is also the first to provide El Niño real-time forecast results on the University of Columbia website.