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当今中国,成品油消耗量日益激增,油价的不稳定性对国民经济产生了显著的影响,所以研究成品油价格变化对物价的影响有着实质意义。本文以重庆2012年139部门投入产出表为基础数据,首先对使用数据进行处理说明;然后运用改进的投入产出价格反馈影响模型对重庆市成品油价格波动进行实证分析;最后利用具有价格浮动变量的投入产出价格反馈影响模型实证模拟在政府对部门物价调控作用下重庆市成品油价格波动对PPI和CPI的影响。结果表明:成品油价格下降25%将引起重庆市PPI下降1.900%、CPI下降1.559%;运输行业的价格浮动范围越大,PPI和CPI的波动越激烈。最后进行总结并给出应加快能源价格改革和防止通货紧缩的政策建议。
In China today, the consumption of refined oil is increasing day by day. The instability of oil price has a significant impact on the national economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of the price change of refined oil on the price. Based on the input-output data of 139 departments in Chongqing in 2012, this paper first describes the use data. Then, it uses the improved input-output price feedback impact model to make an empirical analysis of the price volatility of oil products in Chongqing. Finally, Input-output, output-feedback, impact model of variables Empirical study of the impact of price volatility of refined oil prices on PPI and CPI in Chongqing under the role of government price controls on sectors. The results show that: a 25% drop in refined oil prices will cause a drop of 1.900% in PPI and a decrease of 1.559% in CPI; the greater the price fluctuation in the transportation industry, the more intense the fluctuation of PPI and CPI. Finally, it summarizes and gives policy recommendations to speed up energy price reform and prevent deflation.