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为了评估热保护火工品的高温安全性,根据假设的装药和保护结构失效温度分布及温升历程模型,建立了热保护火工品的安全性分析模型。采用证据理论中的专家判断方法处理模型参数确定中的不确定性问题,基于专家判断获得的参数区间分布情况,使用随机抽样方法,生成了N组模型参数,完成安全性分析并进行结果的统计表达。分析结果表明,证据理论可以成功用于热保护火工品高温安全性的量化评估。
In order to evaluate the high temperature safety of pyrotechnic products, a safety analysis model of pyrotechnic products was established based on the hypothetical models of the temperature distribution and failure temperature distribution of the pyrotechnics. The expert judgment method in the evidence theory is used to deal with the uncertainty problem in determining the model parameters. Based on the distribution of parameter intervals obtained by the expert judgment, N sets of model parameters are generated by using the random sampling method, the safety analysis is completed, and the statistics of the results expression. The analysis results show that the evidence theory can be successfully used to quantitatively evaluate the thermal safety of pyrotechnics.