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本文从客源地结构、游客逗留时间、游客消费及旅游淡旺季四方面阐述了内地游客在香港入境旅游中的地位。在此基础上,选取2002—2011年的数据对内地游客数量与香港整体物价及部分类别商品、服务价格之间的关系进行了分析。长短期因果分析及脉冲响应函数分析的结果表明,衣履类商品价格与内地游客数量呈相互影响关系,内地游客数量对香港整体物价存在影响但作用有限。内地游客对香港物价的影响不应被过分夸大。
This article expounds the status of mainland tourists in inbound tourism in Hong Kong from four aspects: the structure of tourist sources, the length of tourists ’stay, tourists’ spending and the tourist season. Based on this, we select the data from 2002 to 2011 to analyze the relationship between the number of mainland tourists and the overall prices in Hong Kong and the prices of some categories of goods and services. The results of short-term and long-term causal analysis and impulse response function analysis show that the prices of clothing and footwear products and the number of tourists in the Mainland are interdependent. The number of mainland tourists has an impact on the overall price in Hong Kong, but the effect is limited. The impact of mainland tourists on Hong Kong prices should not be overstated.