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过去2 000年气候变化对区域社会经济发展的影响是PAGES计划研究的重要主题之一。围绕过去2 000年气候变化对中国经济波动、社会稳定性、朝代更替与社会兴衰影响的问题,重点综述了近年来关于上述3个方面的研究成果。得出中国历史社会经济与气候变化的时序共振现象中可能确实蕴含着内在的关联机制;暖期气候总体有助于社会经济的健康发展,而气候转冷引发的社会经济效应可能与社会发展本身有关,且被社会放大。未来的研究需要进一步挖掘中国历史文献信息的潜力,关注气候—人类社会相互作用机理的解释及区域影响差异。
The impact of climate change on regional socio-economic development over the past 2,000 years is one of the major themes of the PAGES program. Focusing on the issue of the impact of climate change on China’s economy, social stability, the change of dynasties and the rise and fall of society in the past 2,000 years, the research results of the above three aspects in recent years are mainly reviewed. We can conclude that the temporal resonance phenomenon in Chinese history, socio-economy and climate change may indeed contain intrinsic correlation mechanism. The warm climate generally contributes to the healthy development of society and economy, and the socio-economic effects caused by the cold climate may be related to the social development itself Related, and by the community to enlarge. Future research needs to further tap the potential of Chinese historical documentary information and pay attention to the explanation of the climate-human interaction mechanism and the differences in regional influence.