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一、现价处于本轮周期的拐点之上21世纪以来,我国草甘膦行业发展经历了三个周期,2007-2009年为产能扩张期,2010-2013年为产能调整期,2014-2017年为去库存期,每轮的周期时间大致为三年左右,时间跨度基本相近。三轮草甘膦价格制高点分别为10万元/吨,4.5万元/吨,预计第三轮高点在在2.8万元/吨,草甘膦整体价格也经历了几次起伏;三个周期内草甘膦高点价格呈现大幅下降的态势,从周期性性质来看,草甘膦属于短周期性
1. The current price is above the inflection point of the current cycle Since the 21st century, the development of the glyphosate industry in China has gone through three cycles. The capacity expansion period is from 2007 to 2009, and the capacity adjustment period is from 2010 to 2013. In 2014–2017, During the destocking period, the cycle time for each round is roughly three years, and the time span is basically similar. The commanding height of the three rounds of glyphosate prices was 100,000 yuan/ton and 4.5 yuan/ton, and the third round high point was expected to be 28,000 yuan/ton. The overall price of glyphosate also experienced several ups and downs; three cycles The high price of glyphosate in the interior shows a sharp decline. From the cyclical nature, glyphosate is short-periodic.