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与十年前亚洲金融危机时相比,中国政府的财政实力和金融实力已大大加强,中国具有占世界28%的政府外汇储备。从长期的趋势看,中国正处在城镇化的中期,还有几亿人口会在未来十年中从农村移往城市,还有大量的基础设施投资需求在推动中国经济规模的进一步扩张。中国正在制定十大产业的振兴规划等,这些产业政策、财政政策和货币政策等的实施将对中国经济产生巨大的正面效应。2009年,中国最大的挑战将是如何应对可能激化的失业问题。下半年后,世界的关注将从中国政府如何应对国内的困难转为中国如何和其他新兴经济体一起引领世界经济走向新一轮的增长。
Compared with the Asian crisis ten years ago, the financial strength and financial strength of the Chinese government have greatly strengthened. China has 28% of the world’s government foreign exchange reserves. From a long-term perspective, China is in the midst of urbanization, with hundreds of millions of people moving from rural areas to cities over the next 10 years. There is also a large demand for infrastructure investment to further the expansion of China’s economy. China is formulating the revitalization plan for the top ten industries. The implementation of these industrial policies, fiscal policies and monetary policies will have a huge positive impact on the Chinese economy. In 2009, China’s biggest challenge will be how to deal with the potential unemployment problem. After the second half, the world’s concern will shift from how the Chinese government deals with domestic difficulties to how China, along with other emerging economies, will lead the world economy to a new round of growth.