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将公共支出纳入人力资本的积累函数,建立内生经济增长模型,分析公共支出内部结构变化对经济增长率的影响,并进行了数值模拟。采用1978-2008年中国各项公共支出数据,对中国经济增长的贡献进行实证分析。研究结果表明:公共支出中教育、医疗和基础设施支出的最优配置比例,依赖于各项支出对人力资本的贡献,以及人力资本在经济增长中的作用;公共支出中的最优配置不是一成不变,从工业化初期到中等收入国家,为实现经济的长期增长,应从初期的公共设施建设支出逐步向教育和医疗支出倾斜;中国1994年的分税制以及上世纪90年代的公共事业私有化改制导致了政府教育和医疗支出减少和经济建设性支出强化,这会损害长期的经济增长路径。
The public expenditure into the accumulation function of human capital, the establishment of endogenous economic growth model, analysis of changes in the internal structure of public expenditure on economic growth rate, and conducted numerical simulation. Using the data of various public expenditures in China from 1978 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of China’s economic growth. The results show that the optimal distributive proportion of education, medical care and infrastructure expenditure in public expenditure depends on the contribution of various expenditures to human capital and the role of human capital in economic growth. The optimal disposition of public expenditure is not immutable From the early industrialization to the middle-income countries, in order to realize the long-term economic growth, education and medical expenditures should be gradually leveled from the initial spending on public facilities construction. The 1994 tax-sharing system in China and the privatization of public utilities in the 1990s led to the government Less education and health care expenditures and more constructive spending on economy undermine the long-term path of economic growth.