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前段时间,最引人注目的新闻不是美国即将攻打伊拉克,而是广东的“瘟疫传言”。由此引出的一个话题就是:恐慌传言之于现代经济的影响。现代市场经济是一个典型的信用经济和信心经济。如果信用的链条遭到破坏,或者信心崩溃,就有可能对经济产生致命的损害。而导致信用链条被破坏以及信心崩溃的途径很多,其中恐慌传言是其中之一。在通常的情况下,社会制度(包括正式规则和非正式规则)是稳定的,人们的预期也是稳定的,供给和需求在正常的范围内波动,经济运行相对安全、平稳。
Some time ago, the most remarkable news was not the U.S. impending attack on Iraq, but the “plague rumor” in Guangdong. One of the topics emanating from this is the impact of panic rumors on the modern economy. Modern market economy is a typical credit economy and a confident economy. If the chain of credit is damaged or the confidence of the economy collapses, there is a risk of fatal damage to the economy. There are a lot of ways leading to the destruction of the credit chain and the collapse of confidence. Among them, the panic rumor is one of them. Under normal circumstances, the social system (including formal and informal rules) is stable, people’s expectations are stable, supply and demand fluctuate within the normal range, and the economy is relatively safe and stable.