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[目的]利用已有的流感监测数据制定福田区流感监测基线和预警曲线,进行早期预测。[方法]采用2005～2009年两所医院的流感样病例百分比监测数据(ILI%),通过统计分析制定基线和预警曲线。[结果]福田区流感基线值为4.10%,预警值为7.95%,警戒曲线反映的异常波动与2010年实际的暴发疫情及病原分离结果相一致。[结论]福田区的流感监测预警曲线具有较好的灵敏性和准确性,能对流感疫情进行早期预警。
[Objective] To establish the baseline and early warning curve of influenza surveillance in Futian district by using the existing influenza surveillance data and make early prediction. [Methods] The percentage of influenza-like illness cases (ILI%) in two hospitals from 2005 to 2009 was used to establish the baseline and early warning curve through statistical analysis. [Results] The baseline value of influenza in Futian District was 4.10%, the early warning value was 7.95%. The abnormal fluctuations reflected by the alert curve were consistent with the actual outbreaks and pathogen isolation results in 2010. [Conclusion] The flu monitoring and early warning curve in Futian district has good sensitivity and accuracy, and can early warning the flu outbreak.