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为了给数控装备可靠性预测提供更丰富、更精确、更及时的信息源,探讨了运用数控装备使用过程中的性能劣化数据对数控装备可靠性进行预测的方法与工具。给出基于性能状态监测的性能劣化建模与可靠性预测原理,并提出一种基于非平稳自回归积分滑动平均模型的数控装备性能劣化建模方法,以监测与分析数控装备关键性能参数的时变特性;提出基于隐马尔科夫链模型的数控装备可靠性预测方法,以揭示数控装备使用过程中的性能状态变化特征及其可靠性变动情况。在此基础上,开发了数控装备可靠性预测原型软件系统。该系统对于提高数控装备利用率、减少数控装备维修费用以及延长数控装备使用寿命等具有重要的意义。
In order to provide a richer, more accurate and timely information source for CNC equipment reliability prediction, methods and tools for predicting the reliability of CNC equipment by using performance degradation data during the use of CNC equipment are discussed. The performance degradation modeling and reliability prediction based on performance condition monitoring are given. A modeling method of performance deterioration of CNC equipment based on non-stationary auto-regressive integral moving average model is proposed to monitor and analyze the key performance parameters of NC equipment. A new method to predict the reliability of CNC equipment based on hidden Markov chain model is proposed to reveal the characteristics of the change of performance status and the changes of reliability during the use of NC equipment. On this basis, the prototype software system of CNC equipment reliability prediction was developed. The system is of great significance for improving the utilization of numerical control equipment, reducing the maintenance cost of numerical control equipment and extending the service life of numerical control equipment.