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中国2016年财政赤字率目标设为3%,明确扩张性财政政策立场;我们估算2016年实际赤字率或达3.8%赤字扩大的主因是降低税费,而非刺激支出赤字扩大将通过发债和盘活财政结转资金等实现2016年中国财政预算赤字率为3%的目标已获全国人大审议通过。自1994年财税体制改革以来,中国政府预算一直偏向保守,财政赤字率从未突破3%。然而近期决策部门多次表态称将重新审视3%的赤字率红线。2016预算案证实决策层有意采取更为扩张的财政政策
China set a target of 3% fiscal deficit in 2016 with a clear expansionary fiscal policy stance. We estimate that the main cause of the real deficit increase of 3.8% or up to 3.8% in 2016 will be lower taxes instead of stimulating the expansion of the spending deficit through debt issuance and Activating funds to carry forward the funds, etc. The goal of 3% of China’s budget deficit in 2016 has been approved by the National People’s Congress. Since the reform of the fiscal and taxation system in 1994, the budget of the Chinese government has been conservative. The fiscal deficit rate has never exceeded 3%. However, many decision makers recently said they would revisit the red line of the deficit at 3%. The 2016 Budget confirms that policymakers are interested in adopting a more expansive fiscal policy