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国际油气投资项目突出特点为期限长、数额大、风险高,因而油气项目百万吨产能投资水平的高低,直接影响着项目的经济效益。一般情况下,项目投资额度的确定是油公司在编制年度投资计划最重要的指标之一,而年度计划的编制也是公司计划管理工作的重要组成部分。当前,编制投资计划的工作方法是以传统核准工作量为基础制定项目年度投资计划,还不能从经济效益出发核定项目产能投资水平,具有一定的局限性。在此背景之下,笔者根据多年从事国际油气投资项目评估及计划编制工作的经验,提出将百万吨产能投资临界值应用于油公司的投资计划编制工作之中,该指标以项目的经济效益为前提,弥补了当前单纯地以具体工作量为基础的投资计划管理工作的不足,是一个科学有效的方法。临界值概念缘于物理学,在物理学中物质因为能量的不同而会有物理性质的改变(例如:由于温度的提高,冰变成水,水变成水蒸气),改变前的极限即为临界值。而将物理学中的临界值引入到经济领域,主要是反映经济因素随外部因素变化而使其经济性发生变化。将临界值的概念扩展到石油领域,目的是探究该领域敏感性因素—投资,以石油项目经济性为前提,测算百万吨产能投资临界值,作为编制项目投资计划的基础。
The salient features of international oil and gas investment projects are long term, large amounts and high risks, so the investment level of millions of tons of oil and gas projects directly affects the economic benefits of the project. Under normal circumstances, the project investment limit is determined by the oil companies in the preparation of an annual investment plan, one of the most important indicators, and the preparation of the annual plan is also an important part of the company’s plan management. At present, the preparation of the investment plan work method is based on the traditional approved workload of the project annual investment plan, but also can not proceed from the economic benefits approved project investment capacity, has some limitations. Under this background, based on the experience of many years engaged in the evaluation and planning of international oil and gas projects, the author proposes to apply the investment threshold of one million tons of capacity to the preparation of the investment plan of oil companies, which is based on the project’s economic benefits As a prerequisite to make up for the current lack of investment plan management based solely on the specific workload is a scientific and effective method. The concept of the threshold is due to physics. In physics, matter changes its physical properties due to different energies (for example, due to the increase of temperature, the ice turns into water and the water turns into water vapor). The limit before the change is Threshold. However, the introduction of the critical value in physics into the economic field mainly reflects the change of economic factors with the changes of external factors. The concept of critical value is extended to the petroleum field. The purpose is to explore the sensitive factor in this field - investment. Calculating the critical investment value of 1 million tons of capacity based on the economic efficiency of petroleum projects, as the basis for formulating the project investment plan.