群众文化的预测研究,是使决策科学化的一个必要条件,是制定发展战略不可缺少的一部分,也是增强群文工作者预见性和开创性的现实需要。特别是在世纪之交的关键时期,随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立,如何把握群众文化的规律、走向和发展前景,如何抓住机遇,迎接挑战,开辟未来,牵 The research on the prediction of mass culture is a necessary condition for scientific decision-making and an indispensable part of formulating a development strategy as well as a realistic need for enhancing the predictability and pioneering of group-writing workers. Especially at the crucial juncture of the turn of the century, with the gradual establishment of the socialist market economic system, how to grasp the laws, trends and development prospects of the mass culture, how to seize the opportunities, meet the challenges and open up the future,