本文提出了有关TCP连接的拥塞丢包分析模型 .网络瓶颈一般承载许多TCP连接 ,瓶颈处不可避免的拥塞和缓存溢出 ,是导致网上丢包的主要原因 .网络瓶颈处的行为很大程度上左右了网络性能 .本文的模型估计了存在大量持续TCP连接时 ,网络瓶颈的丢包概率和网络传输中断概率 ,给出了对实际网络的良好近似 .这对于研究TCP对网络性能的影响 ,提出改善网络性能的新算法 ,以及分析 (从长远来看 )TCP还应做哪些改进 ,都是非常有用的 . In this paper, we propose a congestion analysis model for TCP connections. Network bottlenecks generally carry many TCP connections, with unavoidable congestion and buffer overflow at the bottleneck, which is the main reason for packet loss on the Internet. The performance of the network is estimated.The model in this paper estimates the probability of packet loss and the probability of network transmission interruption when there are a large number of continuous TCP connections and gives a good approximation to the actual network.This study aims to study the impact of TCP on network performance and propose improvements The new algorithms for network performance, as well as analyzing (in the long term) what improvements TCP should make, are all very useful.