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构建综合交通承载力评价模型,将铁路、公路、海港和空港等四种方式共同构成的综合交通体系的承载力纳入同一分析框架中,并对交通承载力进行了三方面的扩展:研究范围由城市扩展到区域,研究对象由单一要素扩展到复合系统,研究内容由现实扩展到潜在。以京津冀城市群为研究区域,对2004~2013年各种运输方式以及综合交通承载力的变化趋势进行实证分析,研究结果表明:第一,从不同运输方式来看:铁路发展迅速,随着城市群经济社会发展,承载能力趋于紧张;城市群交通需求过分依赖公路运输,不利于交通运输可持续发展;海港间同质化竞争严重,已成为制约港口群整体承载能力提高的瓶颈;空港发展由不平衡向平衡转变,协同效应逐步显现。第二,从城市群综合交通来看:综合交通基础设施承载力持续增强,但仍然存在薄弱环节;综合交通运输能力的提高对城市群经济社会发展的具有缓慢而显著的支撑和引导作用;潜在运输需求日趋强劲,对综合交通运输系统的承载能力压力逐步增大。在此基础上,从加快城际铁路的发展和建设、强化港口间的合作、打造国际航空枢纽以及适度超前建设交通基础设施等四方面对京津冀城市群综合交通发展提出相关建议。
The comprehensive traffic capacity evaluation model is constructed and the carrying capacity of the integrated transport system formed by four ways including railways, highways, seaports and airports is included in the same analytical framework. The carrying capacity of transport is extended in three aspects: The city expands to the area, the research object expands from the single factor to the compound system, the research content expands from the reality to the latent. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research area, this paper empirically analyzes the changing trends of various modes of transportation and comprehensive traffic carrying capacity from 2004 to 2013. The results show that: First, from different modes of transport, the rapid development of the railway The economic and social development of the urban agglomeration tends to be more stressful. Over-reliance on road transport in urban agglomerations is not conducive to the sustainable development of transport. The serious competition among seaports has become a bottleneck that limits the overall carrying capacity of the port population. The development of the airport has shifted from imbalance to balance and the synergies have gradually emerged. Secondly, from the perspective of integrated traffic in urban agglomerations, the carrying capacity of integrated transport infrastructure continues to increase, but there are still some weak links. The improvement of comprehensive transport capacity has a slow and significant support and guidance for the economic and social development of urban agglomerations. Increasingly strong demand for transport, increasing pressure on the carrying capacity of integrated transport systems. On this basis, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the comprehensive traffic development in Beijing, Tianjin and Ji-Cheng urban agglomeration from the aspects of speeding up the development and construction of inter-city railways, strengthening the cooperation among ports, building international aviation hubs and properly constructing transport infrastructure ahead of schedule.